🔗 Share this article

Just 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. After the in-form star swept in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough question to answer. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus United.

His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Potential for Growth

Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
• The attacking talent might become the force he was during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential player for the national team.

This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.